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ORB Iraq poll update  
Posted by Paul Harris on September 20 2007, 15:03 » Uploaded 20/9/07 18:32  

An update to my previous post about the ORB poll estimating more than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered:

clipped from www.opinion.co.uk

September 2007 - Iraq Casualties Poll Update

ORB to conduct additional interviews in rural Iraq.

We have received a lot of interest in the recent 'casualties' poll that we carried out in conjunction with our local partners in Iraq - IIACSS. Our survey was carried out throughout Iraq and looked at the incidence of civilian deaths since 2003 - together with Iraqi's views on the displacement of people.

As with many other activities in Iraq polling has its own restraints and it is simply too dangerous for interviewers to operate in some areas. Meanwhile local authorities prevent interviewers from working in certain towns and districts. This means that we cannot gather opinion from the more volatile areas but, at the same time we have, so far, also limited coverage in rural districts. Both of these factors mean that any estimate of deaths will remain just that - an estimate.

While, for obvious reasons, we cannot boost our representation of people living in Iraq's most violent areas we have decided - following feedback from readers of our poll - to conduct a more extensive survey of rural areas to see how this may impact on our estimate. We are in the process of conducting additional interviews in rural areas of Iraq. Once this data has been verified and merged with our current data set we will post it here on the ORB website. We aim to be in a position to release this data within ten days i.e. first week of October.

http://www.opinion.co.uk/Newsroom_details.aspx?NewsId=79

COMMENTS Post comment

 

Comment 01 – Paul Harris September 20 2007, 15:21

I forgot to add - the same polling firm, ORB, ran another poll in May which found that the majority of Iraqis prefer living in the current nightmare to living under Saddam.

Which makes me wonder: how credible is this polling company?

Link to ORB's May poll

Comment 02 – Joe September 20 2007, 19:05

I wonder if the May poll randomly avoided the category of people who figured heavily in the September poll (ie those who lost household members).

Comment 03 – sonny September 21 2007, 22:43

The May ORB poll asked if a 'family member or relative' was killed. 26% said yes.

That question would cover extended family, and several households.

Yet in the new poll, the question is supposed to limit things to just one household, but 23% still say yes (almost the same number).

Looks like most of the people in the new poll were still answering 'family member or relative', not just one household. Since ORB's new estimate rests on assuming that answers apply to only one household, their estimate is inflated many times over.

 

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