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CRED paper on Lancet/IBC  
Posted by ALP on February 20 2008, 13:49 » Uploaded 20/02/08 16:51  

Estimating mortality in civil conflicts: lessons from Iraq by Debarati Guha-Sapir and Olivier Degomme (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels).

Some excerpts:

The Burnham [Lancet 2006] estimates of deaths in the post invasion period are much higher than any other estimate. Even the lower limit of its 95%CI is higher than the highest estimate from any other source (Table 1). Further, weaknesses cited earlier as well as several inconsistencies in their published work undermine the reliability of their estimates. [...]

While IBC is undoubtedly missing some deaths in Baghdad, it is unlikely that they would miss an average of over 100 violent deaths a day, given the level of media coverage in the city. We therefore conclude that their Baghdad mortality estimate is close to complete, further corroborated by the ILCS estimates [...]

Our re-estimation of total war-related death toll for Iraq from the invasion until June 2006 is therefore around 125,000.
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